Spot rates rise to 22-month high as Hormuz remains volatile

London — Global container spot rates continued their upward climb last week, reaching their highest level in nearly two years as carriers maintained pricing discipline amid strong peak-season demand and continued cargo frontloading ahead of expected U.S. tariff changes.

Supply chain analytics firm Drewry’s World Container Index increased 5% to $4,166 per 40-foot container in its June 25 assessment. The benchmark, widely used by procurement teams and shippers, reached its highest level since September 2024.

The increase was driven primarily by the trans-Pacific trade lanes, where carriers continue to benefit from cargo frontloading ahead of expected U.S. tariff changes.

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Spot rates from Shanghai to New York increased 6% to $7,149 per 40-foot container. Rates to Los Angeles rose 12% to $5,750.

Drewry said only four blank sailings have been announced for this week, reflecting continued tight capacity on the trade lane. Carriers also are preparing additional general rate increases and peak season surcharges in July. Drewry expects spot rates to continue rising in the coming weeks.

Asia-Europe pricing was comparatively steady. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam edged up 1% to $4,392 per 40-foot container, while rates to Genoa were unchanged at $5,759.

Capacity also remains constrained, with only three blank sailings announced for this week. Drewry said carriers continue to maintain firm pricing ahead of the July 1 bunker fuel adjustment, with CMA CGM announcing higher Freight All Kinds rates and new peak season surcharges effective next month.

Strait of Hormuz still a wild card

Even as freight markets continue to strengthen, developments in the Strait of Hormuz remain a key source of uncertainty for carriers and importers.

According to NBC News, commercial traffic through the strategic waterway has gradually resumed following the recent U.S.-Iran interim agreement, but shipping conditions remain far from normal. Vessel operators continue to navigate under heightened security measures, and concerns persist following attacks on merchant ships and ongoing warnings from Iranian authorities over approved transit routes.

The situation became more uncertain this week after a merchant vessel was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast, prompting the International Maritime Organization to temporarily pause its voluntary evacuation program for stranded vessels while safety conditions are reassessed. At the same time, many ships continue to avoid the center of the strait because of mine risks and instead hug Omani waters, resulting in longer and more complex voyages.

Although crude shipments through Hormuz have recovered to their highest levels since the Iran war began, analysts say overall vessel traffic remains below prewar norms as carriers evaluate the durability of the current ceasefire framework.

For importers, the market remains caught between strong seasonal demand and continued uncertainty in the Middle East. Drewry expects spot rates to keep moving higher in the near term as carriers maintain pricing discipline ahead of July.