Importers move to get ahead of higher tariffs and fuel prices

Washington – As a hedge against higher costs around the corner, import cargo volume is expected to rise in June before settling down into lower year-over-year levels this fall.

The Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates casts the volume heading into the nation’s major ports this month as a skewed year-over-year bump.

“We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that’s partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty.”

The increase also reflects the comparison against June 2025 volume, which plummeted following President Donald Trump’s announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs two months earlier. In addition, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted, importers are now facing higher shipping costs as well as Trump’s recent moves to ladle on new tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled his 2025 tariff structure illegal.

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“We have increased our outlook for June cargo volume as retailers bring forward their peak season cargo to mitigate increasing shipping costs as carriers pass along the sharply rising cost of fuel and because of concerns about punitive replacement tariffs,” Hackett said.

He added, “The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak. After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.05 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in April, although the Port of New York and New Jersey has not yet reported its numbers. That was down 5.1% from March and down 7.3% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported May numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.14 million TEU, up 9.7% from a year earlier, when imports were down sharply because of last year’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. June is forecast at 2.25 million TEU, up 14.3%, with the increase also because of low imports a year earlier. July is forecast at 2.19 million TEU, down 8.4% year over year; August at 2.12 million TEU, down 8.6%; and September at 2.06 million TEU, down 2.2%. October is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, up 0.1%.

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.6 million TEU, up 0.6% from the same period in 2025 thanks, in part, to the May-June increases.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.